Thought #43
December 2009
Author: Bill Thurston
More on Afghanistan
A thought on Afghanistan was published earlier this year ( http://www.aboutthisus.com/thought_39.htm ),
but I couldn't pass up forwarding this new information to you. This is a
military document called an "After Action Report". Note the sources for this
report. This is the first Thought that will take more the 10 minutes to read but
I hope it is worth the time. I normally include the link to the source on the
internet but I don't believe you will find it there yet.
Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
December 5, 2009
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Colonel Michael Meese - Professor and Head Dept of Social Sciences
CC: Colonel Cindy Jebb - Professor and Deputy Head Dept of Social Sciences
SUBJECT: After
Action Report—General Barry R McCaffrey USA (Ret)
VISIT TO KUWAIT AND AFGHANISTAN – 10-18 November 2009
1. PURPOSE: This
memo provides a strategic and operational assessment of security operations in
Afghanistan. Be glad to conduct a Faculty Seminar and Cadet Class lectures based
on this report during this spring semester.
2. SOURCES:
A. SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIALS:
General David Petraeus,
Commander, United States Central Command (USCENTCOM).
General Stanley McChrystal,
Commanding General, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and US Forces
– Afghanistan (USFOR-A).
LTG William Caldwell,
Commanding General, NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan.
LTG Jim Dutton (UK),
Deputy Commanding General, NATO ISAF Headquarters, Kabul.
MG Mike Scaparotti,
Commanding General, ISAF Regional Command (East), Combined Joint Task
Force (CJTF)-82.
MG Dick Formica,
Commanding General, Combined Security Transition Command (CSTC)-A.
MG Peter Vangjel,
Deputy Commanding General, Third Army/United States Army Central.
MG John Macdonald,
Deputy Commanding General, USFOR-A.
RADM Greg Smith,
Director of Strategic Communications, ISAF/USFOR-A.
MG Mike Flynn,
Director of Intelligence, CJ2, ISAF.
MG Bill Mayville,
ISAF Director of Strategic Plans and Assessment (CJ3).
MG Nick Carter,
(UK), Commander, ISAF Regional Command-South (RC-S). 13.)
MG Stephen Mueller,
USAF, Director, Air Component Coordination Element (ACCE), HQ ISAF.
BG Mark Martins,
Interim Commander, Task Force 435, US Theater Internment Facility-Afghanistan.
BG Anne Macdonald,
Afghan National Police Development.
BG Ben Hodges,
Director of Operations, RC-SOUTH, Kandahar.
BG Guy Walsh,
Commander, 451st Wing.
BG John Nicholson,
Commander, RC-SOUTH, Camp Leatherneck.
BG Kurt Fuller,
Deputy Commanding General – Operations, CJTF-82.
BG Gregory Touhill,
USAF, Chief, Office of Military Cooperation – Kuwait.
BG Thomas Murray,
USMC, Deputy Commander, International Security Assistance Force, RC-SOUTH.
COL (P) KK Chinn,
Deputy Commanding General – Support, CJTF-82.
COL Brian Drinkwine,
Commander, 4th Brigade
Combat Team, 82nd Airborne
Division.
COL Harry Tunnell,
Brigade Commander, 5th Stryker
Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry
Division.
COL Michael Howard,
Brigade Commander, 4th Brigade
Combat Team, 25th Infantry
Division.
COL Eric Kurilla,
Commander, Ranger Regiment, Camp Alpha, Bagram.
COL Randy Copeland,
Task Force-714 J3, Camp Alpha, Bagram.
COL Kimberly Rapacz,
Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3, 335th Signal
Command, Camp Arifjan, Kuwait.
COL Dennis Cahill,
Chief, Development Information Operations (LOO), CJTF-82, CJ7.
COL Kevin Palgutt,
Military Police, Senior Advisor to the Minister of Interior.
COL
Tom Umberg,
CSTC-A (Anti-Corruption Strategy).
LTC Amy Cook,
Commander, Joint Task Force Lone Star, (Bagram Detention Center).
LTC James Coote (UK),
Distinguished Service Order (DSO), Military Assistant to COM RC-SOUTH, ISAF.
B. INTERMEDIATE JOINT COMMAND BRIEFING:
MG Jacques DeChevallier (FR),
Deputy Commanding General.
MG Colin Boag (UK),
Chief of Staff.
MG Mike Regner, USMC,
Chief of Operations.
BG Alberto Corres (SP),
Chief of Staff, Stability Operations.
BG Stephen Bowes (UK),
Chief of Staff, Plans and Programs.
RDML (S) Paul Becker,
CJ2.
COL Wayne Grigsby,
Deputy Chief of Staff.
COL Marty Schweitzer,
XO to the Commander.
C. ISAF STRATEGIC ADVISORY GROUP:
COL Kevin Owens,
Director.
COL Chris Kolenda.
COL Hal Douquet.
CDR Jeff Eggers.
Mr. Greg Ryckman.
D. AFGHAN OFFICIALS:
Abdul Rahim Wardak,
Minister of Defense.
Mohamad Hanif Atmar,
Minister of Interior.
General Bismillah Khan Mohammadi,
Chief of Staff of Afghan National Army.
MG Muhammad Raheem Wardak,
Commanding General, 201st Corps,
Afghan National Army.
Dr. Ashraf Ghani,
Co-Director, Institute for State Effectiveness; former Afghan Minister of
Finance.
Shahmahmood Miakhel, former Deputy Interior Minister of Afghanistan.
E. DIPLOMATIC OFFICIALS:
Ambassador Karl Eikenberry,
US Ambassador to Afghanistan.
Ambassador Deborah Jones,
US Ambassador to Kuwait.
Ambassador Frank Ricciardonne,
Deputy Chief of Mission.
Ambassador Tony Wayne,
Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs.
Ambassador Mark Sedwill,
UK Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.
Ambassador (Ret.) William Taylor,
Vice President, Peace & Stability Operations, US Institute of Peace.
Core Country Team Brief.
Mr. Robert Watkins,
Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General, UN Advisory Mission-
Afghanistan.
Mr. William Frej,
Mission Director, US Agency for International Development (USAID).
Ms. Annie Pforzheimer,
Political Counselor, US Embassy, Kabul.
Mr. Mike Spangler,
Economic Counselor, US Embassy, Kabul.
F. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS:
DEA/FBI/Treasury Briefing – US Embassy, Kabul:
Mr. Jay Fitzpatrick,
Assistant Regional Director, DEA.
Mr. Bob Jones,
FBI Legal Attaché.
Mr. Keith Weiss,
DEA.
Mr. Jeff Silk,
DEA.
Mr. Kirk Meyer,
Afghan Threat Finance Cell.
LTC Joe Myers,
USFOR-A LNO.
3. CONTEXT:
This report is based on a series of briefings at the United States Embassy in
Kuwait, ARCENT HQS at Camp Arifjan, Kuwait ---and then subsequent field tactical
observations in Afghanistan (ISAF, Afghan Government officials, UNAMA,
USFOR-A, US Embassy Kabul, RC-South Kandahar, RC-East Bagram) at the invitation
of General David Petraeus, Commander, USCENTCOM and General Stanley McChrystal,
Commander, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and US Forces –
Afghanistan (USFOR-A).
It was an honor to again assess the current challenges in Afghanistan. This
report is based on personal research, data provided in-country during this trip,
and first-hand observations gained during my many field visits to Pakistan,
Kuwait, and Afghanistan during the period 2003 forward to the current situation.
The conclusions are solely my own as an Adjunct Professor of International
Affairs at West Point and should be viewed as an independent civilian academic
contribution to the national security debate. No one in CENTCOM or the ISAF
Command in Afghanistan has vetted this report.
These observations focus on Afghanistan and the way forward. They do not center
on Pakistan or the US domestic political challenge.
The President’s Afghanistan Strategy Speech at West Point was coherent, logical,
and sincere. It was the end result of a very deliberative and thoughtful
analytical review of the situation in Afghanistan and our several unpalatable
options. It was an appropriate political statement which delivered resources to
his field commander and explained why the Commander-in-Chief would not downsize
or withdraw---and face the short term political and military disaster that would
immediately ensue.
There is precious little support for the Afghan operation among the American
people. 66% say it is not worth fighting for. Only 45% of Americans and few
among his political party approve of President Obama’s handling of the war. This
was not a speech on military strategy. We are unlikely to achieve our political
and military goals in 18 months. This will inevitably become a three to ten year
strategy to build a viable Afghan state with their own security force that can
allow us to withdraw. It may well cost us an additional $300 billion and we are
likely to suffer thousands more US casualties.
One of the most important concerns of American national security policy in the
short run is arguably the stability of Pakistan. Pakistan is four nations under
one weak federal government. Only the Pakistani Army is a load bearing
bureaucracy. The Pak Army is disciplined, under-resourced, and courageous. The
Pak Army is also the Frontier Corps, the Intelligence Service (ISI), and the
most respected and trusted institution in the country. They are also the
guardians of Pakistan’s 70-90 nuclear weapons. They have only tenuous control
over much of the country.
We are very vulnerable in our Afghanistan operation. 90% of our Afghanistan
logistics comes through the Port of Karachi and runs a dangerous thousand miles
of wild country on “jingle trucks” headed to the Bagram or Kandahar Logistics
Bases. Pakistani success in maintaining internal stability and economic growth
is vital to our continued operations in Afghanistan. The present Zadari
government and the economy are teetering on the edge. The Pakistani Army is
fighting their own Taliban for the future of the nation. It is not clear if
Pakistan will regress to fundamentalism or become a modern, unified state. There
is little question that Pakistan offers de facto secure sanctuary in both
Baluchistan and the FATA regions to the Quetta Shura and the Hekmatyar Taliban
factions.
4. GENERAL:
Afghanistan and her 28 million people are trying to build the basic elements of
a civil and Islamic society while traumatized by 35 years of cruel violence and
chaos. The country is a giant and beautiful land of great contrasts. The natural
leadership of the tribes has been slaughtered (one million murdered) or driven
into exile (three million) first by the Soviets during their terrible invasion
and repression of the people---then by the Taliban as an antidote to clan
resistance to their unwelcome and poisonous rule.
The Afghans are such impressive, devout, generous, and energetic people. They
have an acute sense of humor in the face of relentless misery and adversity.
They are superb, courageous soldiers and energetic, creative businessmen. They
have deep respect for learning and teachers---and a thirst and gratitude for
education and knowledge even at the most elemental level. They are intensely
focused as students at any age and quick to learn and adapt.
5. THE MILITARY SITUATION -- THE BOTTOM LINE:
The Taliban believe they are winning. The Afghan people do not know who will
prevail---their government or the Taliban. The populations, particularly the
Pashtun, are hedging their bets. Most Afghans are also dismayed at the injustice
and corruption of the government (in particular the ANP) compared to the more
disciplined and Islamic Taliban. Taliban open internet communications among
themselves and their propaganda to the Afghan people take into account their
slogan that “the West has the clocks…but the Taliban have the time.”
The Taliban think they have the moral high ground. They are richly funded with
drug money. They are well equipped and heavily armed. They have perfected
massive anti-armor IED’s. They are good at rapid and effective information
operations. They deal in recent months with the Afghan people in a careful
manner to avoid the cruel images of their past oppression.
The Taliban now have a serious presence in 160 Districts of 364--- up from 30
Districts in 2003. They have a Shadow Government at Province level and most
Districts throughout the country. Insurgent attacks have increased 60% in less
than a year. In July alone they employed 828 IED attacks against friendly
forces. We should expect 5,700 IED attacks in total by year’s end 2009. We must
guard against tactical arrogance by US and Allied ground combat forces.
Twice in recent months we have seen battalion sized units of Taliban fighters
conduct highly successful (not-withstanding catastrophic losses by the attacking
insurgents) complex attacks employing surprise, reconnaissance, fire support,
maneuver, and enormous courage in an attempt to overrun isolated US units. This
is not Iraq. These Taliban have a political objective to knock NATO out of the
war ---backed up by ferocious combat capabilities. We must ensure that ISAF
forces follow the tactical basics of: fire support to always include supporting
artillery, intelligence oversight, OP/LP’s for early warning, adequate reserves,
and operate with appropriate tactical mass against these very clever enemy
fighters. Only the incredible small unit leadership, fighting skill, and valor
of these two small US Army units ---which suffered very high casualties at Wanat
and COP Keating --- prevented a humiliating disaster.
US, Allied and ANA (Army)/ANP (Police) casualties have gone up dramatically.
(The ANP take the overwhelming preponderance of the losses. Apparently the
Taliban take them very seriously as a potential threat to their night control of
villages.) As of 25 November, US casualties are 922 killed and 4565 wounded.
(Eight + battalions killed or wounded). During the expected Taliban and ISAF
simultaneous spring offensives--- we may well encounter ISAF casualty rates of
300-500 a month.
ISAF is reinforcing just in time to rescue the deteriorating tactical situation.
Currently 42 nations provide 35,000 Non-US NATO troops (many with severe ROE
constraints or military competence issues). The current US force level of 68,000
troops will increase per order of President Obama on 2 December by as many as
33,000 additional troops. The Allies may well provide an additional 7000+
reinforcements. However, only the courageous Brit’s will have both robust ROE
and an aggressive ground-air-logistics-SOF combat capability. The Canadians and
the Dutch will withdraw. The political support in Germany for their Bundeswehr
(extremely weak capabilities because of very restrictive ROE) is on the verge of
collapse. The French are extremely capable but in the field in small numbers.
The Afghan National Army is a growing success story. All five Maneuver Corps
Headquarters have been fielded along with 14 of 19 Brigade Headquarters, and 82
of the 132 authorized ground combat battalions. (Kandaks). 46 of these
battalions are rated as capable of independent operations. Plans are to take the
ANA from 90,000 to 240,000 by 2013.
One of our most capable combat leaders, US Army LTG Bill Caldwell, has been
recently given the task of building the ANA and ANP Afghan security force. He
has already been assigned two US brigade training teams from the 82nd Abn
Division and the 48th BCT
of the GA NG. He will now command all NATO Training establishment forces.
As the units graduate from institutional training and deploy to the Regional
Commands to operate—they will then fall under ISAF operational command. More
trainers will soon follow from elite US and NATO units.
The Afghan National Police ANP (now 92,000 officers) are a work in progress.
They are six years behind the ANA in development. The police are badly equipped,
corrupt (7,300 fired in last two years), and untrained (64 of 365 Police
Districts have gone through training.) The US Department of Defense will now
take total charge of this program from State Department. It will take a decade
to create an Afghan National Police Force with adequate integrity which can
operate at village level in a competent manner. It will also require 1000
trained and protected judges--- and a competent force of prosecutors and defense
lawyers. Finally, we must create a correction system so that convicted prisoners
can be incarcerated in a humane manner.
We have now mostly fixed the disorganized NATO/US/Afghan military command and
control system. Thankfully, Secretary Gates, Generals Dave Petraeus at CENTCOM
and General Stan McChrystal the ISAF Commander (with the deft political-military
support of US Admiral Jim Stavridis the NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe)
have unscrewed this mess. We now have a unifying theater strategic ISAF
headquarters commanded by General McChrystal. The next level of control is the
tactical-operational direction and coordination of all allied and Afghan forces
in all four Regional Commands which is now in the hands of the very experienced
US combat leader LTG Dave Rodriguez with the NATO (IJC) Intermediate Joint
Command. Petraeus and McChrystal are the most effective counter-insurgency
strategists and counter-terrorist fighters we have produced in nine years of
war.
We now have finally rationalized and made coherent US and NATO airpower in
Afghanistan. This war would be immediately unsustainable without the massive
employment of US Air Force, Navy (Carrier Battle Group dedicated on station in
the Indian Ocean), Marine, and Army aviation power:
The air power numbers are huge: ground attack (22,931CAS sorties year to date);
UAV, ISR, medevac, re-fueling (15,438 tanker sorties year to date), and
transport assets (11,984 C17 sorties and 31,871 C130 sorties year to date).
Nearly 100% of troop personnel, ammunition, sensitive items, and armored
vehicles moved by air. (We flew 2830 MRAP light armor vehicles into Afghanistan
in less than a year. Now flying 7,000 MATV’ s). Casualties move in and out of
the battle zone by air--three days time to return wounded soldiers to US with a
95% survival rate. Isolated Army, Marine, and SOF units are resupplied with
food, water, fuel, building materials, and humanitarian aid by precision airdrop
from altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet which land inside a 100 foot circle with
95% precision. Air power is the glue that holds together the war effort.
Afghanistan and Iraq are an immensely costly war running in excess of $377
million a day in FY10 Constant dollars. (WWII was $622 million per day.). US
Defense outlays for 2009 are $657 billion (or 4.6% of GDP…the highest since
1992.) In FY 2009 the war in Afghanistan cost $55.9 billion in regular
appropriations with an additional supplemental of $80.73 billion. Clearly
Afghanistan will run with a burn rate in excess of $9 billion per month by the
summer of 2010.
American military values which were put at such risk during the Rumsfeld
leadership era of Abu Gharib have now been restored by our senior military and
civilian leadership. My visit to the new Bagram Detention Facility was
enormously moving. 500+ detainees. Most are released after 24 months. They gain
an average of 46 lbs in confinement. They learn to read in their native tongue
at the 4th grade
level. They are given the option of also learning English and almost all do.
They receive vocational training and have access to a distinguished Afghan
Islamic scholar. The US prison commander is a Texas National Guard female Lt
Colonel who is a lawyer, an MP, a mother and a grandmother. She meets unguarded
each day with the senior detainees, sitting cross-legged in a circle (Shura) to
hear their views. The 18th Airborne
Corps Military Police Brigade Commander who has oversight command of the
facility talks to each detainee as they are released. He is a hardnosed combat
soldier. Invariably he tells me--- the detainees thank him and hug him goodbye.
All three of our superb senior US-NATO dual-hatted combat leaders---General Stan
McChrystal, LTG Dave Rodriquez, and LTG Bill Caldwell have called upon the best
and the brightest of the military services and the inter-agency operators (FBI,
DEA, AID, Border Patrol, etc.) to rally to this Afghanistan campaign. We now
have the absolute best leaders in uniform, the CIA, law enforcement, and
State/US AID headed into Afghanistan to run this operation.
6. THE PROBLEMS FACING 40,000 AFGHAN VILLAGES:
Afghanistan is still in the 14th Century. It is the fifth poorest nation on the
face of the earth. Basic services are rudimentary or non-existent. The Afghans
lack infrastructure, justice, resources and the most basic forms of local and
national governance. Only 12 % of the land is arable and they face grossly
inadequate potable water, soil degradation, massive deforestation, and severe
overgrazing.
Afghanistan is the second most corrupt nation in the world after Somalia. Their
adherence to tribal and Islamic values has been shattered by endless civil war
and foreign oppression. There is almost no civil or criminal justice. Court
trials last only minutes in many cases and lack juries. Human rights violations
are endemic: extrajudicial killings, official impunity, restrictions on freedom
of the press and religion, and severe and widespread child abuse. The nation’s
34 provincial prisons and 203 detention centers are appalling. Prisoners are
consistently subject to torture and police frequently rape female and male
detainees.
Five million children live in desperate poverty. 70% of the country is
illiterate. Unemployment is widespread. 40% of the country literally does not
know where their next meal will come from. People starve or freeze to death in
the winter.
The lot of women is dismal…87% complain of violence… half of it sexual….60% of
marriages are forced. The education level is at four years. From a Western
perspective ---in the conservative rural areas (80% of the nation) --- women are
in many cases merely abused property with less opportunity than a donkey.
General life expectancy is under 45 years. Tuberculosis and drug addiction are
widespread. The country is infested with 5-7 million land mines which have
disabled more than 200,000 Afghans.
Terrorism and lack of basic physical security is widespread. The Taliban enforce
a parallel system of justice involving hangings, torture, beheadings and
beatings. Criminality and extortion on the nation’s road network is omnipresent.
Decades of warfare have left property issues in great disorder.
The land is mired in endless bloody civil war among the Pashtun (42%), the
Tajiks (27%), the Uzbeks (9%), the Hazaras (9%), and the many others who speak
Dari, Pashto, and a polyglot of disparate languages. The frontiers with
Afghanistan’s six neighbor states are uncertain and divide intensely felt tribal
and ethnic affiliations.
7. AFGHANISTAN NOW HAS HOPE:
The Afghan nation has an elected President --Hamid Karzai --who is: brilliant,
well educated, non-violent, a politically astute deal maker in a nation where
murder not compromise is the normal political tool; a man who deeply cares for
his people; and who is a personally courageous Afghan patriot who is constantly
at risk of assassination (several near successful attempts…probably from the
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar insurgents in the FATA region of Pakistan.). His popularity
with his own people has fallen dramatically as the Taliban have surged to
greater power in part because of the ineffectiveness of his government.
Karzai is also a national leader in a deeply divided nation who has the
legitimacy that comes from being part of the dominant ethnic group (42% of the
nation is probably Pashtun) and the most prestigious tribe. President Karzai is
also committed to earning his place in history as a transformer of his nation to
a peaceful place in the civilized world. He is under enormous personally
destructive and contradictory pressure from his Allies, the Afghan people, and
US representatives. (Underweight, sick, nervous facial tic.) He is clearly
imperfect. However, there is no evidence I have seen that he is personally
corrupt in any way. Like President Grant following the US Civil War, he has a
collection of ruffians in his inner circle. Some of the Provincial Governors are
murderous felons. We in the international community have handled him very
stupidly and arrogantly at times.
Hamid Karzai is trying to govern the transition of Afghanistan with a leadership
cadre which is a mixture of world class expatriates (to include the current MOD
and MOI and several other cabinet level officials), many political and
bureaucratic and military leaders who are courageous and devout but illiterate;
and a collection of warlords, thugs, and rascals ---which include some of his
own family (brother Ahmed Wali Karzai is reputed to be the straw boss of
Kandahar and a de facto drug king pin.) ---and also a smattering of dishonest
international contractors.
The overwhelming percentage of 124,000+ US and Allied NGO’s and contractors in
Afghanistan (to include DynCorp whose Board of Directors I am proud to be with)
are men and women of integrity, energy, and talent who are there at great
personal sacrifice and peril. They care deeply about Afghanistan, they want an
adventure, and they need a paycheck. Without them the entire war effort ---and
most economic and political development ---would grind to an immediate and total
collapse.
The recent Afghan Presidential election in this fragile, violent nation (with no
history of democracy or the rule of law) was deeply flawed. The 30,000+ Taliban
are mostly Pashtun. They terrorized the Pashtun plurality into not voting.
Karzai’s dishonest campaign electoral machine then manufactured three million
ballots to make up for the missing voters. However, given the realities of
this troubled nation no one else could possibly have won. The US and the UN
proposed a runoff Presidential election with the number two runner-up Mr.
Abdullah (seen as the Tajik candidate). This course-of-action would have
produced another delayed, murderous, freezing, expensive, and equally
unconvincing political charade.
We (the US, UN, and EU) forced on this primitive country a constitution that has
some form of national election EVERY YEAR EXCEPT THREE until the year 2023.
Could Florida handle this surfeit of democracy? We do not find many examples of
operative democracy within 5000 miles of Kabul.
Afghanistan has an elected bi-cameral legislature, a constitution, a growing
road network (90% of the Ring Road is complete), and the rudiments of a
disciplined and courageous Army. (90,000 troops.) When we entered Afghanistan on
a punitive military expedition following the murder of nearly 3000 Americans on
“911” --the Afghan nation was in a shattered condition. People were living in
caves in the rubble of Kabul. There were nearly no institutions left standing
except the Taliban. Five million refugees have now returned since 2002
demonstrating with their presence hope for the future.
The Taliban are politically rejected by nearly the entire non-Pashtun
population. Even among the Pashtun they command polling support of less than 6%.
The Taliban were the spiritually pure, they held the moral high ground, they
dispensed immediate dispute resolution, they normally were disciplined and
anti-crime. They were also a malignant virus in this sick society. They were the
uneducated, murderous, rural hicks who destroyed the culture and invented a
cruel form of Islam not normal to this devout but tolerant society. They were
anti-history. They turned Afghanistan into a nightmare for women, for other
ethnic minorities, and for the Shia Hazaras. They were senselessly cruel and
destructive. Only the Soviets were worse.
The Afghan’s are generally extremely grateful for US and international presence.
US/NATO forces have a 60%+ favorability rating in the polls. (US poll numbers
are lower in the UK, South Korea, Germany and Japan.) All four recent Afghan
Presidential candidates publicly endorsed and supported the US presence.
However, the Afghans are extremely apprehensive that we will leave again…sinking
them back to the chaos of endless civil war.
Social indicators have dramatically increased for the better since the end of
the Taliban’s cruel era. Access to basic health care has rocketed from 8% in
2001 to 79%. 83% of the children are immunized. Child mortality has been reduced
by 25%. TB deaths are down by 50%. Seven million children are in school to
include three million girls -- up from one million students and zero girls
during the Taliban rule.
The repression of human communication and thought during the Taliban has been
reduced dramatically. Eight million people have phones. There are 650 active
print publications reflecting differing political views. There are 15 television
networks and 55 private radio stations. There are also 150+ private printing
houses and 145 media and film production companies. People and commerce now move
constantly day and night (albeit at frequent risk of criminal or Taliban attack)
across the Afghan frontiers with their six neighbor states.
The economy is climbing from zero to rudimentary. The legal economy is growing
at 10% per year. The Afghans have rapidly created effective businesses that do:
light manufacturing, crafts, construction, trucking, and road building. The
agricultural system is painfully trying to repair the damage of 30 years of war
and the competition of opium planting for scarce arable land. The Afghan goal is
to feed the population and again become a breadbasket for SW Asia. Educational
institutions to include universities and vocational training programs are
appearing across the country. Large deposits of iron, copper, gold, gas, and
gemstones are in the initial stages of exploration and exploitation.
Hydroelectric electrical power is coming on line.
Violence against the people has been dramatically reduced as the Taliban learned
both in Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal areas that they will have a fatal
kinetic encounter with ISAF ground combat units if they mass in sizable numbers
in daylight or dark---OR if discovered by US airpower to include Predator/Reaper
armed UAV’s. The death rate among Afghan civilians is way down since the new
ISAF Commander General McChrystal instituted extremely sound restrictive ROE on
the employment of firepower in populated areas. Fareed Zakaria notes that the
Afghan death rate is less than a tenth that of Iraqis during the terrible civil
war violence of 2006.
8. THE DRUG ISSUE---OPIUM:
The $3.4 billion opium crop of 7,700 metric tons (2008) produces weapons and
supplies for the Taliban and al Qaeda, corrupts the police and civil
authorities, diverts land from food (two million drug workers) and has addicted
a significant percentage of the population . Left unaddressed -- the heroin
menace will defeat our strategic goals in this campaign.
Afghanistan is now the most damaged narco-state on the face of the earth. There
are at least 920,000 drug users causing abject misery among widows, orphans, the
unemployed, the poor. A new UN study will soon suggest there may be as many as
two million drug users.
Afghanistan is the world’s largest grower of opium which is banned under the
1988 UN Drug Convention to which it is a signatory. Drug money is a fifth of the
national GNP. Afghanistan produces 93% of the global supply of heroin. This
criminal trade funnels $200-400 million into the Taliban and the warlords.
Increasingly the Afghan criminal enterprises process a larger and larger
percentage of the opium into exportable morphine or heroin. Production has
overwhelmed global demand. As much ten thousand tons of stable opium have been
stockpiled---enough to provide two years of the global demand for heroin.
(900,000+ US addicts.) Afghan heroin primarily is consumed in neighboring SW
Asia nations, Russia, and Western Europe. It causes enormous suffering and
bloodshed. Afghan heroin is estimated to kill more than 10,000 people a year in
NATO countries…more than five times the NATO troop losses from combat.
Only in the last 18 months have we begun to seriously address the problem.
Secretary Rumsfeld spoke of the issue as one pertaining only to the Europeans.
The current notion that we can ignore the growers as simple farmers trying to
survive -- and focus our counter-drug strategy only on law enforcement against
the cartels -- is painfully naïve. These huge criminal Afghan heroin operations,
if not defeated, will corrupt legal governance, addict the population, distort
the economy, and funnel immense resources to the Taliban and terrorist
groups.
The solution is three pronged. First, work on alternative livelihood
agricultural crops. Second, have the Afghan political leadership confront the
opium issue as un-Islamic and one that destroys their culture. Third, destroy
the crops. Without the last -- nothing will work. Other nations have
successfully addressed the drug issue: Thailand, Pakistan, Bolivia (until
Morales), Peru, and to some extent Colombia (the traffic moved south to
non-government controlled areas.).
9. SUMMARY:
The time for rhetoric and analysis is done. This operation is now in the hands
of the ISAF battalions and SOF elements on the ground. The American people will
judge this on outcomes ---not political spin.
There is no inevitability to history. We are neither the Brit’s nor the Soviets.
This is an effort to secure our own national safety and build a stable Afghan
state. We can achieve our strategic purpose with determined leadership, American
treasure and blood.
The international civilian agency surge will essentially not happen ---although
State Department officers, US AID, CIA, DEA, and the FBI will make vital
contributions. Afghanistan over the next 2-3 years will be simply too dangerous
for most civil agencies.
NATO forces are central to our success. They bring resources, political
legitimacy, and brainpower. With few exceptions, however, they will not conduct
aggressive counter-insurgency operations. They will be a huge help with training
and monitoring the growth and mentoring of the ANA and ANP.
My judgment is that we can achieve our objectives in the coming five years:
1ST:
Create an Afghan security force that will operate in defense of their
people and reduce our own active combat role.
2ND:
Create governance from the bottom up at District and Province level that makes
the lot of the Afghan people better (and worth supporting the government against
the Taliban).
3RD:
Mitigate the corruption of the Afghan transition by having a parallel chain of
financial custody and approval of resources -- until the Afghan government is
not operating like an active criminal enterprise.
We now have the most effective and courageous military forces in our nation’s
history committed to this campaign.
The superb leadership from Secretary Gates, Admiral Mike Mullen, General Dave
Petraeus, and General Stan McChrystal is objective, experienced, non-political,
and determined.
Our focus must now not be on an exit strategy -- but effective execution of the
political, economic, and military measures required to achieve our purpose.
Barry R McCaffrey
General USA (Retired)
Adjunct professor of International Affairs
Department of Social Sciences
West Point, New York
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