Stocks are Seasonal

World oil stocks follow a seasonal pattern in which they are typically drawn down rapidly in the middle of the winter and re-built rapidly in the spring, creating a tendency for world oil prices to be strongest in the fall and weakest in the spring.  This stock seasonality stems from world oil demand being much more seasonal than world production.  Stock swings are most pronounced in those Northern Hemisphere heating fuels -- heating oil, propane, and kerosene -- that drive world oil demand seasonality.  Crude stocks are also seasonal, being drawn when refiners push their runs up to peak levels and built when refiners schedule maintenance at their plants.   But, since Asia’s refining system has its peak output in the winter, with maintenance scheduled for the summer, while North America’s system is summer-peaking, with maintenance scheduled for late winter or early fall, much of the regional seasonality in crude oil stocks cancels out at the world level. Thus, global product stocks tend to be much more variable than crude oil stocks.  With refineries growing more flexible and demand becoming less seasonal, stocks are becoming less seasonal too. 

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